Modeling for Utility Simulation

23 March 2019

SciEng Research’s Modeling for Concise Space Mission Utility Simulation with Apollo as Exemplar accepted for publication in the Journal of the Astronautical Sciences. The research article provides demonstration of a new method for converting high fidelity models into more agile surrogates for rapid Monte Carlo utility simulation of space missions. Springer’s acceptance of the article, which uses the Apollo 11-17 human spaceflight missions to the Moon as its exemplar, comes during the year of the 50th anniversary of the historic Apollo 11 landing. The research will be used to architect future missions. Visit the website’s publications page for online information of this article as it becomes available.

Abstract: Presented is a stochastic modeling method enabling rapid yet comprehensive space mission utility simulation. The method facilitates multivariate analysis with concurrent tradespace exploration, risk assessment, and holistic design while simultaneously exploring, assessing, and developing statistically validated concepts of prospective space missions. Modeling is achieved through the synergistic integration of statistical mechanics, blackbox, Bayesian, ansatz, and analytics techniques. The method is verified for its ability to accurately depict a human spaceflight mission and validated for its ability to perform mission utility analysis by backtesting the Apollo 11-17 missions to the Moon through Monte Carlo simulation.

Keywords: Mission Utility Simulation, Space Mission Engineering, Surrogate Modeling, Apollo Missions, Progspexion

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